A Basic Time Series Forecasting Course with Python
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract The aim of this paper is to present a set Python-based tools develop forecasts using time series data sets. material based on 4-week course that the author has taught for 7 years students operations research, management science, analytics, and statistics 1-year MSc programmes. However, it can easily be adapted various other audiences, including executive or some undergraduate No particular knowledge Python required use material. Nevertheless, we assume good level familiarity with standard statistical forecasting methods such as exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), regression-based techniques, which deliver course. Access relevant data, codes, lecture notes, serve material, made available (see https://github.com/abzemkoho/forecasting ) anyone interested in teaching developing mathematical background tools.
منابع مشابه
Time Series Analysis in Python with statsmodels
We introduce the new time series analysis features of scikits.statsmodels. This includes descriptive statistics, statistical tests and several linear model classes, autoregressive, AR, autoregressive moving-average, ARMA, and vector autoregressive models VAR.
متن کاملTime-series Scenario Forecasting
Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some information. We would ideally have a way to query the posterior probability of the entire time-series given the predictive variables, or at a minimum, be able to dr...
متن کاملForecasting Seasonal Time Series∗
This chapter deals with seasonal time series in economics and it reviews models that can be used to forecast out-of-sample data. Some of the key properties of seasonal time series are reviewed, and various empirical examples are given for illustration. The potential limitations to seasonal adjustment are reviewed. The chapter further addresses a few basic models like the deterministic seasonali...
متن کاملForecasting Analogous Time Series
Organizations that use time series forecasting on a regular basis generally forecast many variables, such as demand for many products or services. Within the population of variables forecasted by an organization, we can expect that there will be groups of analogous time series that follow similar, time-based patterns. The co-variation of analogous time series is a largely untapped source of inf...
متن کاملAutomatic time series forecasting
Automatic forecasts of large numbers of univariate time series are often needed in business. It is common to have over one thousand product lines that need forecasting at least monthly. In these circumstances, an automatic forecasting algorithm is an essential tool. Automatic forecasting algorithms must determine an appropriate time series model, estimate the parameters and compute the forecast...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Operations Research Forum
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2662-2556']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43069-022-00179-z